The Confidence Level is a subjective estimate on a scale from zero to 100 percent, indicating how likely it is that a Key Result will be achieved by the end of the quarter. It supplements purely quantitative progress tracking with a qualitative team assessment and makes the need for action visible early. For moonshot goals, the Confidence Level typically starts at around 50 percent, since achieving 70 percent already counts as success.
Consider an example: a Key Result aims to acquire 100 new customers. In week four, the team is at 30. Purely by the numbers, that is behind schedule. Yet the team sets the Confidence Level at 70 percent because the sales pipeline is well filled and several deals are close to closing. Conversely, a team could be on track numerically but lower its Confidence Level because a key sales channel has collapsed. A declining Confidence Level is the signal for the team and leadership to take action.
The Confidence Level is an OKR best practice that gets updated during the Weekly Check-in. It works best in combination with a traffic light system that directs attention to Key Results at risk.
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