Systems with many interconnected, dynamic elements -- not predictable.
Complexity describes systems consisting of many interconnected, dynamic elements whose behavior is not predictable. The most important distinction in practice: complex is not the same as complicated. A complicated problem (repairing a watch) has a solution that an expert can find. A complex problem (understanding a market) has no predictable solution — it must be addressed through experimentation and adaptation.
The Cynefin Framework by Dave Snowden classifies problems into four domains: Simple (clear, apply best practice), Complicated (analyzable, seek expert advice), Complex (emergent, experiment and observe), and Chaotic (acute, act immediately). The classification determines the appropriate approach. Anyone who tackles a complex problem with tools designed for complicated problems — detailed planning, expert analysis, linear execution — will systematically fail. Complex problems require iterative approaches, rapid feedback loops, and the willingness to change the plan along the way.
The Cynefin Framework was published in 2007 by Dave Snowden. For leaders, the core message is: the first and most important decision is classifying the situation — because it determines which tools are even appropriate.
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